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The National Interest
Will China Have Global Naval Dominance by 2030?
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According to some dire predictions, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could have naval dominance by 2030 and naval superiority by 2049. Such a foreboding prophecy comes from Captain James E. Fanell (Retired), former director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, in a widely published account this past weekend.
In an op-ed, Captain Fanell wrote, “After 20 years of transformation, the PLA Navy operates around the world from the Baltic to the South Pacific and from the Arctic to the Antarctic… The PRC’s naval expansion is already well advanced. Since 2008, the PLA Navy has dispatched 35 naval escort task forces through the Indian Ocean and into the Gulf of Aden, and PLA Navy ships have visited over 60 nations.”
Fanell added that the PLAN no longer worries about warship shortages, and that great attention is now being paid to its aircraft carrier platform, while Beijing is also focusing on its Type 075 landing helicopter (LHA) amphibious assault vessels. The latter would be comparable to the U.S. Navy’s America-class LHA—and that platform would prove crucial should Beijing ever actually mount an invasion to reclaim Taiwan.
Perhaps most worrisome in Fanell’s forecast is that he assesses that the PLAN could consist of a surface force of more than 450 ships, along with a submarine force approaching 1109 submarines by just 2030. That is a 10 percent increase from his 2015 estimate, one he warned could even be on the low side. The goal for China is a global naval presence, first to the Indian Ocean and then beyond.
Some of that global reach has already become a reality, as the PLAN is engaged in enlarging its first overseas military base in Djibouti on the Red Sea. That base, which is located near the U.S. Naval Expeditionary Base, was built at a cost of $590 million in 2017. While Djibouti is one of Africa’s smaller nations it has become an important “strategic partner” to Beijing.
Fanell is not the only one to express concerns at the rate of the PLAN’s expansion.
Last month a Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities Background and Issues for Congress, highlighted Beijing’s naval modernization efforts, which encompassed a wide array of platforms and weapon acquisition programs. According to the report, these include anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), submarines, surface ships, aircraft, unmanned vehicles (UVs), and supporting C4ISR (command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) systems.
The report also highlighted that there are several issues that Congress must take action on, including whether the U.S. Navy is responding appropriately to China’s naval modernization efforts and even if the planned size of the Navy will be appropriate to counter China.
While such concerns of Chinese naval acquisitions must be addressed by lawmakers in Washington, there are some factors to consider. First, such a building problem by Beijing still faces the very serious issue of corruption. As The National Interest previously reported, China’s naval modernization is far more complex than simple growth as the corruption among the shipbuilders will have lasting consequences for the PLAN. The more money that China invests in shipbuilding the more opportunities for corruption will emerge, so the question then becomes whether Beijing can offer the necessary transparency to fight that corruption.
Then there are the lessons from history.
The British Royal Navy adopted its so-called “two-power standard,” which required that it increase its naval strength. The standard called for the Royal Navy to maintain a number of battleships at least equal to the combined strength of the next two largest navies in the world, which then were France and Russia. This became a real problem when the Royal Navy built the HMS Dreadnought, which made all other battleships essentially obsolete. Overnight the British lost their advantage and that started a new round of warship building.
For China to gain naval dominance would require that it could launch and maintain more than the 11 aircraft carriers the United States Navy now operates, but would also need to keep pace with the carriers in service with the Royal Navy, France and Australia. As long as NATO exists it isn’t just the 11 U.S. carriers and potentially nine LHAs in the U.S. fleet, but all of those other carriers.
Fanell noted that an alliance with other partners is the United States’ best course of action. He wrote, “The best option to avert future conflict is for the U.S. and India to adopt a combined effort to significantly enhance our whole of government approach to strengthen and integrate our military capabilities to confront the PRC’s bad behavior, especially at sea.”
Perhaps, first letting China spend wildly on developing a navy should also be an option as well. Maintaining it—dealing with the corruption—and trying to create its own “multi-power standard” might just be more than Beijing bargained for.
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.
Image: Reuters
U.S.
U.S. to sidestep arms pact to sell armed drones
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-sidestep-arms-pact-sell-152518184.html
The Trump administration will re-interpret a Cold War-era arms-control agreement in order to help American defense contractors sell military drones to more nations.
Three defense industry executives and a U.S. official told Reuters about the policy change, which has not previously been reported.
The change concerns the 33-year-old Missile Technology Control Regime - or MTCR - a pact created to curb arms proliferation, which counts 34 member nations.
Washington has long seen the MTCR's restrictions on cruise missile sales as applicable to large, weaponized drones.
And until now, only England, France and Australia have been allowed to buy armed drones from U.S. manufacturers, according to data collected by The Center for the Study of the Drone at Bard College in New York state.
But an arms industry executive told Reuters that Jordan, Romania, Saudi Arabia and UAE have shown interest in purchasing U.S. systems and will be among the first customers in line when the U.S. policy changes.
Reinterpreting the MTCR is part of a broader Trump administration effort to sell more weapons overseas.
A U.S. official and industry executives told Reuters the State Department is expected to approve the first drone sales under the new interpretation as soon as this summer,
The U.S. National Security Council is expected to support the policy change at a meeting next week and discuss a possible White House announcement.
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World
U.S.'s Pompeo to meet China's top diplomat in Hawaii seeking to ease tensions: media
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World
China Finishes Its Second Large Amphibious Assault Ship
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The Chinese Navy has now launched a second large amphibious assault ship engineered to carry weapons, helicopters, troops and landing craft into war, a move which further changes international power dynamics by strengthening China’s ability to launch expeditionary maritime attacks.
The ship is described at the second Type 075 Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD), somewhat analogous to the U.S. WASP-class. This Chinese amphibious assault ship reportedly displaces as much as 30,000 tons and is able to carry as many as 28 helicopters, a report from Naval News states. The report adds that the new People’s Liberation Army Navy LHD is likely powered by a diesel engine with 9,000kW, four Close In Weapons Systems and HQ-10 surface-to-air missiles. The new ship’s “aim is likely to increase the “vertical” amphibious assault capability with the very mountainous East Coast of Taiwan in mind,” the Naval News report writes.
The addition of more LHDs certainly increases China’s maritime attack power, making it a formidable threat along the Taiwanese coastline. Photos of the ship show well-deck in back, capable of launching ship-to-shore transport craft similar to the U.S. Navy Landing Craft Air Cushion or newer Ship-to-Shore Connector. Such a configuration makes it appear somewhat similar to U.S. Navy WASP-class which, unlike the first two ships of the America-class, also operates with a well-deck from which to launch large-scale amphibious assaults.
The Chinese LHD operates with a displacement of roughly 10,000-tons less than its U.S. counterpart. However, despite an apparently smaller size, it may operate with as many or more helicopters; if reports that the Chinese LHD can operate 28 helicopters are true, that would appear to be a larger number than the roughly 22 operated by U.S. LHDs. Regardless, it does not appear as though the Type 075s operate anything like the Short-Take-off-and-Landing F-35B stealth fighter which launches from U.S. LHDs. F-35Bs, combined with Harrier Jets and Ospreys are likely to push the number of aircraft operated by U.S. LHDs somewhat higher than that Type 075. The aviation centric first two America-class ships and the legacy WASP boats both now operate with F-35s. Having the F-35 is likely to give U.S. LHDs a decided advantage over these emerging Chinese counterparts; not only does it bring the prospect of stealth and air support, but also brings new dimensions of ISR to maritime warfare. The possibility of establishing air supremacy during an amphibious assault with an F-35 or even merely fortifying an advance with 5th-generation air power, is reshaping amphibious attack strategy with unforeseen advantages.
While threats to Taiwan may jump out as the first and most apparent area threatened by expanding Chinese amphibious forces, the South China Sea will also be increasingly vulnerable. In particular, when it comes to ship-to-shore transports, a Type 075 could dispatch groups of troops, weapons and even armored vehicles for attack, as well as large numbers of amphibious assault vehicles. Several of these ships operating in tandem would easily enable a Chinese amphibious assault to annex or overwhelm large areas of the disputed island areas. Also not likely to be lost on U.S. observers is that two capable LHDs of this kind massively increase China’s expeditionary capability, introducing new dimensions to the prospect of large-scale amphibious attacks against major-power target areas around the globe.
Kris Osborn is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
Image: Reuters
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Reuters
U.S. Senate panel authorizes $9.1 billion for 95 F-35 jets made by Lockheed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee said on Thursday it had authorized $9.1 billion to procure 95 F-35 aircraft in its version of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, an annual bill setting policy for the Department of Defense.
The F-35 jet is made by Lockheed Martin Corp <LMT.N>.
The 95 F-35s authorized in the bill are 14 more than requested by President Donald Trump's administration.
The Senate committee also authorized the U.S. Air Force to keep six F-35s originally sold to Turkey.
The jets were never delivered to Turkish soil because of a disagreement over Ankara's purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system, which the Pentagon said was "incompatible" with the stealthy F-35 jets.
The United States kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program after its S-400 purchase.
(Reporting by Patricia Zengerle and Mike Stone; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Peter Cooney)
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World
Senate panel OKs $6 billion military fund to confront China
WASHINGTON ― Plans for a Senate-crafted version of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a new military fund to boost deterrence against China in the Pacific, is one step closer to becoming law.
The Senate Armed Services Committee has approved nearly $6 billion for the fund in its version of the annual defense policy bill, the panel announced Thursday. It authorizes $1.4 billion in fiscal 2021, which would be $188.6 million above the administration’s budget request, and $5.5 billion for fiscal 2022. The bill also directs the defense secretary to create a spending plan for all of the funds.
“The best way to protect U.S. security and prosperity in Asia is to maintain a credible balance of military power, but, after years of underfunding, America’s ability to do so is at risk,” the committee’s summary stated. “The FY21 [National Defense Authorization Act] establishes the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) to send a strong signal to the Chinese Communist Party that America is deeply committed to defending our interests in the Indo-Pacific.
“PDI will enhance budgetary transparency and oversight, focus resources on key military capability gaps, reassure U.S. allies and partners, and bolster the credibility of American deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.”
Though not all details of the fund were immediately made public, SASC Chairman Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., and ranking member Jack Reed, D-R.I., previously said they would sponsor a measure to enable U.S. military operations in the region, beyond supporting new weapons platforms.
Defense Secretary Mark Esper has said China is his department’s top adversary, but said Congress has worked to sharpen the Pentagon’s spending and focus in the region. The PDI would follow the form of the multiyear European Deterrence Initiative, which has consumed $22 billion since its inception after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Congress will have to internally negotiate the final dollar amount for PDI and what those funds would buy, but House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith, D-Wash., and ranking member Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, have expressed support for the idea. Though the Senate’s approach differs, Thornberry has also proposed spending $6 billion―all in FY21―on priorities that include air and missile defense systems as well as new military construction in partner countries; Smith hasn’t released his own plan.
Once approved by the full Senate, its version of the NDAA would be reconciled with the House’s version, which the HASC is expected to make public late this month before it goes through markup July 1 and advances to the House floor.
With an eye on China beyond the PDI, the SASC bill also encourages the Air Force to establish an operating location in the Indo-Pacific region for F-35A fighter jets and to allocate “sufficient resources and prioritize the protection of air bases that might be under attack from current or emerging cruise missiles and advanced hypersonic missiles, specifically from China."
There are also a number of provisions aimed at safeguarding America’s technology and industrial base from Chinese intellectual property theft and “economic aggression,” according to the summary. The bill would also require reports from the Pentagon on how to mitigate the risks from vendors like Chinese telecom firms Huawei and ZTE when basing U.S. troops overseas.
The SASC summary said its proposed PDI would:
Increase lethality of the joint force in the Pacific, including by improving active and passive defense against theater cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missiles for bases, operating locations and other critical infrastructure.
Enhance the design and posture of the joint force in the Indo-Pacific region by transitioning from large, centralized and unhardened infrastructure to smaller, dispersed, resilient and adaptive basing; increasing the number of capabilities of expeditionary airfields and ports; enhancing pre-positioning of forward stocks of fuel, munitions, equipment and materiel; and improving distributed logistics and maintenance capabilities in the region to ensure the sustainment of logistics under persistent multidomain attack.
Strengthen alliances and partnerships to increase capabilities, improve interoperability and information sharing, and support information operations capabilities with a focus on countering malign influence.
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Business
Two of America's Most Powerful Aircraft Carriers Have Just Joined Forces
World
China Just Added Two New Nuclear Missile Submarines to Its Fleet
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The Chinese have just added two new nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines to their Navy, bringing the total number of so-called SSBNs in the force up to six. While the U.S. operates twice as many, the growing number of Chinese nuclear-deterrence submarines massively expands the ability of Beijing to hold the continental U.S. at substantial risk.
Nuclear-armed submarines are intended to ensure a second-strike catastrophic response in the event of a nuclear attack, essentially ensuring complete destruction of the attacking country. They quietly and secretly patrol at great depths in undisclosed locations to function as a large deterrent force against a first-strike nuclear attack.
As recently as May of 2020, two additional “Type 094 SSBNs, had entered service,” according to a Congressional Research Service Report called “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities.” The newest type of SSBN, according to the Navy report, is armed with 12 JL-2 nuclear-armed, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the CRS report explains. They are also armed with Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles, wire-guided and wake-homing torpedoes and mines. Perhaps of greater concern, the Chinese have already test-fired an emerging JL-3 nuclear armed intercontinental ballistic missile with a reported range of more that 5,600 miles, according to a 2018 CSIS report. The missile is solid fueled.
China clearly appears to be expanding its nuclear-armed submarine reach on a global scale, as there have been several news reports of Chinese SSBNs seen in various hot-spots around the globe.
The CRS report estimates that, by this year, the Chinese are operating 55 diesel-electric submarines and seven nuclear-powered submarines.
Overall, the Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that China may operate as many as 70 submarines, according to the CRS assessment; in addition, the CRS report estimates that China will have as many as 8 SSBNs and 76 submarines overall by 2030. Most of China’s submarines are non-nuclear, and according to the CRS’ reference to the Office of Naval Intelligence, “China’s submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units. Current expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future production numbers.”
While there is likely little known about the exact technological make-up of the emerging Chinese Jin-class SSBN, it may not rival the emerging U.S. Columbia-class submarines. The new, now-in-development Columbia class may be the quietest undersea boat ever to exist. It uses a quiet, efficient electric-drive and a differently configured X-shaped stern.
What is known about the Chinese Jin-class is that it will be armed with an extremely lethal, 5,600 mile range nuclear armed ballistic missile, the JL-3. For instance, a 2018 CSIS report says the Chinese have already test fired the weapon which, by any estimation, could easily hold the continental U.S. at great risk.
Kris Osborn is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
Image: Reuters