World
China Missiles Present Security Dilemma for Japan’s Next Premier
(Bloomberg) -- For eight years, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been looking for ways around Japan’s pacifist constitution to bolster the country’s military. And in his last full week on the job, he laid the groundwork for a plan to allow preemptive strikes on enemy bases.
Abe’s statement on missile defense Friday leaves a big piece of unfinished business for his top aide and likely successor, Yoshihide Suga. While few expect the long-time chief cabinet secretary to share Abe’s zeal for amending the constitution, he’ll be confronted with the same dilemma of how to counter growing threats from China and North Korea -- and the same security demands from Japan’s sole ally, the U.S.
Abe called for alternatives to defend against ballistic missiles, saying that new policies should be decided by the end of the year. He offered vague language on whether that meant strike capability, but added the plan must abide by the country’s exclusively defensive security stance. He also questioned whether interception alone would be enough.
Missiles are among Tokyo’s biggest worries as Beijing and Pyongyang rapidly expand stockpiles of advanced rockets designed to evade defense systems and destroy allied bases. Japan’s response has been muddled, with Defense Minister Taro Kono in June scrapping plans to install Lockheed Martin Corp.’s Aegis Ashore missile shield over concerns about costs and safety to the host communities.
“We are considering what policies are possible as an alternative,” Abe said, leaving the decision up to whoever wins control of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in a leadership election on Monday. “And we will secure an interception capability that can protect our country from the threat of ballistic missiles.”
One option is to buy weapon systems capable of striking enemy missiles before they’re launched. Problem is, that solution probably costs more money than Suga wants to spend during a global downturn. It’s also more likely to stoke fears that Japan is drifting back toward the militarism that led to World War II.
“He will probably favor a modest approach,” said James Schoff, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Asia Program in Washington. “Suga has a lot of challenges to deal with and a broad range of domestic reform priorities that will cause him to be wary of spending too much real and political capital on a military capability that can be applied only in very few situations.”
Suga will also have to contend with growing demands from Washington, whether or not President Donald Trump overcomes former Vice President Joe Biden to win a second term on Nov. 3. The U.S., which wrote the constitution that requires its WWII foe to “forever renounce war,” has increasingly pressed Japan to play a bigger regional role to help counter China’s rise.
While Abe has purchased Lockheed F-35 fighter jets and in 2014 reinterpreted the constitution to allow Japanese “self-defense” forces to come to the aid of an ally under attack, he never mustered enough support to amend the document. Japan’s latest plan seeks to overcome limits on offensive weapons by arguing that striking an enemy base to prevent an attack would be a defensive move.
The most immediate concern comes from North Korea, which threatened to “sink” Japan and fired two nuclear-capable ballistic missiles over the archipelago during a flare-up in tensions in 2017. Since then, Kim Jong Un has rolled out a series of smaller solid-fuel rockets that are easier to hide, quicker to deploy and designed to evade U.S.-made interceptors like the Patriot PAC-3.
China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who both have ongoing territorial disputes with Japan, have poured money into some of the world’s most advanced missiles systems. In October, Xi paraded a variety of weapons intended to offset American advantages in any conflict through Beijing, including the DF-17 missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle, which is designed to make warheads almost impossible to intercept.
“Japanese ruling party politicians are worried that the hypersonic glide vehicle, hypersonic cruise missiles or a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles in a formation flying for conventional attacks that are currently developed by China and Russia could become a game-changer for the near-future warfare,” said Katsuhisa Furukawa, a security analyst who used to serve on the United Nations Panel of Experts on North Korea.
Japan’s current missile-defense system relies on upper-atmosphere interception by Aegis-equipped destroyers and lower-altitude missiles being shot down by Patriots. Scrapping the ground-based Aegis Ashore system could leave a gap in the Japan’s missile shield when the destroyers aren’t in the right place.
On Friday, Abe pointed the need for a more offensive capability in his statement. “Can we really protect the lives of the people and their peaceful existence just by improving our interception capability?” he asked.
Although Japan has the rocket technology to quickly build a ballistic missile force, such a move would be costly. The switch toward offensive weapons could also face opposition at home -- including from the LDP’s pacifist coalition partner Komeito -- as well as from China and other countries previously occupied by Japan.
“The worst thing Japan could do would be to cut back on missile defense and increase offensive strike instead,” said Schoff, of the Carnegie Asia Program. “I don’t think Japan is set up legally or politically to make early and heavy use of strike a viable option and a useful deterrent.”
The Defense Ministry took steps toward a greater strike capability in 2017, when it allocated 2.2 billion yen ($21 million) for an air-to-surface Joint Strike Missile. The fiscal year 2020 budget allocated 13.6 billion yen more for the cruise missiles, which can be mounted on F-35s. The country is also looking to deploy the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, a longer-range version of the JSM.
To build a credible independent strike capability, Japan would also need to improve its surveillance of potential targets in China and North Korea.
“All in all, the costs could become enormous,” said Furukawa, the security analyst. “Japan does not have the fiscal resources available to cover everything on its own.”
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World
Abe plan for land-attack counterpunch could mark major military shift for Japan
By Tim Kelly and Kiyoshi Takenaka
TOKYO (Reuters) - Months before he announced his resignation, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe set in motion a policy change that could for the first time allow Japan's military to plan for strikes on land targets in China and other parts of Asia.
Japan's Self Defence Forces are geared toward stopping attackers in the air and the sea. The policy change would direct the military to create a doctrine for targeting enemy sites on land - a mission that would require the purchase of long-range weapons such as cruise missiles.
If adopted by the next government, the policy would mark one of the most significant shifts in Japan's military stance since the end of World War Two. It reflects Abe's longstanding push for a more robust military and Tokyo's deepening concern about Chinese influence in the region.
The Japanese government is worried by China's increased military activity around disputed East China Sea islets.
"The main reason for our action is China. We haven't really emphasised that too much, but the security choices we make are because of China," Masahisa Sato, a lawmaker from Abe's ruling Liberal Democratic Party who has served as a deputy defence minister and a deputy foreign minister, said in an interview.
Japan renounced its right to wage war after World War Two, making the issue of striking targets on land - which would entail attacks on foreign soil - contentious for its Asian neighbours, particularly China.
Abe said last month he was stepping down because of worsening health. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, who is seen as less hawkish than Abe but is closely aligned with him, is expected to win the race to replace him as party leader and become premier.
GOVERNMENT POLICY
Abe instructed senior defence policymakers in June to come up with LDP proposals for the military that included a land-attack, or strike, doctrine.
That proposal will become government policy if it is included in a revised national defence strategy, which appears likely, according to two insiders, including LDP acting Secretary General Tomomi Inada.
"I don't think there is much opposition to it in the LDP," Inada told Reuters. "That direction doesn't change even with a new prime minister."
The military can already use long-range missiles to strike ships. It considers such plans justified because it needs to be able to destroy weapons threatening Japan. The land-attack proposal is framed using the same reasoning, according to former defence minister Itsunori Onodera.
Therefore, proponents say, Japan's laws will not need to change. During his eight years in office, Abe pushed for but failed to achieve his goal of revising the post-war constitution's pacifist Article 9.
Japan's National Security Council, which Abe leads and includes key cabinet officials, including Suga, convened on Friday and said in a statement it would formulate a new national security strategy by the end of the year.
"There is a question of whether intercepting attacks alone is sufficient to protect peace, lives and people's livelihoods," it said in the statement.
U.S.-made BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles would be an option for land-attack weapons, said Katsutoshi Kawano, who until last year was Japan's most senior military officer, the Chairman of Self Defense Forces Chief of Staffs.
Tomahawks can hit targets 2,500 kilometres (1,553 miles) away. That would put most of China and much of the Russian Far East within range.
"Japan could probably have strike capability within five years," Kawano said. "A full strike package including targeting satellites and electronic warfare components would, however, be far more expensive and take more than 10 years to acquire."
In the meantime, Japan would have to rely on the United States for intelligence and surveillance.
POLITICS
To move the proposal forward, the next government will need to complete a midterm procurement plan as well as the revised defence strategy promised by the NSC by the end of December, before the defence ministry submits its annual budget request.
That could meet resistance from the LDP's coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed Komeito, which worries such a move would antagonise China and threaten Japan's war-renouncing constitution.
"It could spark an arms race and raise tension. It would be technically difficult and would require huge investment," Komeito leader Natsuo Yamaguchi said in an interview. "This is something that has to be thought seriously about under the new Prime Minister."
Even some LDP's security hawks, including one of Suga's leadership rivals, former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, see a potential downside to acquiring long-range cruise missiles.
"What happens if the United States asks Japan to fire them, and we don't want to?" he asked.
(Reporting by Tim Kelly and Kiyoshi Takenaka, additional reporting by Yoshifumi Takemoto and Ami Miyazaki; Editing by David Dolan and Gerry Doyle)
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Pentagon intensifies China operation with waterway flyovers
The Trump administration is intensifying a challenge to China's ruling Communist Party and its sweeping territorial claims over some of the world's most important strategic waterways.
