(Cuộc Chạy Ðua Vũ Trang)
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Timeline Index: Sept. 15, 2020
Timeline: 6/23/2020
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World
China puts final satellite for Beidou into orbit
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World
Japan PM to bolster defense after scrapping missile system
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World
(Video) U.S. "not going to allow Russia and China to continue" increasing nuclear stockpiles, top negotiator says
The U.S. is set to sit down with Russia and possibly China on Monday to
discuss limiting all three countries' nuclear stockpiles. CBS News
foreign affairs analyst Pamela Falk spoke to Ambassador Robert Wood, the
U.S. top arms control negotiator, about his growing concerns over
Russia and China's nuclear arsenals.
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Business
The US wants to kill part of an 8,000 mile-long undersea cable linking Hong Kong with LA over China spying fears
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The National Interest
Will China Have Global Naval Dominance by 2030?
Click here to read the full article.
According
to some dire predictions, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
could have naval dominance by 2030 and naval superiority by 2049. Such a
foreboding prophecy comes from Captain James E. Fanell
(Retired), former director of Intelligence and Information Operations
for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, in a widely published account this past
weekend.
In an op-ed, Captain Fanell wrote, “After 20 years of
transformation, the PLA Navy operates around the world from the Baltic
to the South Pacific and from the Arctic to the Antarctic… The PRC’s
naval expansion is already well advanced. Since 2008, the PLA Navy has
dispatched 35 naval escort task forces through the Indian Ocean and into
the Gulf of Aden, and PLA Navy ships have visited over 60 nations.”
Fanell
added that the PLAN no longer worries about warship shortages, and that
great attention is now being paid to its aircraft carrier platform,
while Beijing is also focusing on its Type 075 landing helicopter (LHA)
amphibious assault vessels. The latter would be comparable to the U.S.
Navy’s America-class LHA—and that platform would prove crucial should Beijing ever actually mount an invasion to reclaim Taiwan.
Perhaps
most worrisome in Fanell’s forecast is that he assesses that the PLAN
could consist of a surface force of more than 450 ships, along with a
submarine force approaching 1109 submarines by just 2030. That is a 10
percent increase from his 2015 estimate, one he warned could even be on
the low side. The goal for China is a global naval presence, first to
the Indian Ocean and then beyond.
Some of that global reach has already become a reality, as the PLAN is engaged in enlarging its first overseas military base in Djibouti
on the Red Sea. That base, which is located near the U.S. Naval
Expeditionary Base, was built at a cost of $590 million in 2017. While
Djibouti is one of Africa’s smaller nations it has become an important
“strategic partner” to Beijing.
Fanell is not the only one to express concerns at the rate of the PLAN’s expansion.
Last month a Congressional Research Service Report, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities Background and Issues for Congress,
highlighted Beijing’s naval modernization efforts, which encompassed a
wide array of platforms and weapon acquisition programs. According to
the report, these include anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs),
anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), submarines, surface ships, aircraft,
unmanned vehicles (UVs), and supporting C4ISR (command and control,
communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance) systems.
The report also highlighted that there
are several issues that Congress must take action on, including whether
the U.S. Navy is responding appropriately to China’s naval modernization
efforts and even if the planned size of the Navy will be appropriate to
counter China.
While such concerns of Chinese naval acquisitions
must be addressed by lawmakers in Washington, there are some factors to
consider. First, such a building problem by Beijing still faces the very
serious issue of corruption. As The National Interest previously
reported, China’s naval modernization is far more complex than simple
growth as the corruption among the shipbuilders will have lasting
consequences for the PLAN. The more money that China invests in
shipbuilding the more opportunities for corruption will emerge, so the
question then becomes whether Beijing can offer the necessary
transparency to fight that corruption.
Then there are the lessons from history.
The British Royal Navy adopted its so-called “two-power standard,”
which required that it increase its naval strength. The standard called
for the Royal Navy to maintain a number of battleships at least equal
to the combined strength of the next two largest navies in the world,
which then were France and Russia. This became a real problem when the
Royal Navy built the HMS Dreadnought, which made all other battleships essentially obsolete. Overnight the British lost their advantage and that started a new round of warship building.
For
China to gain naval dominance would require that it could launch and
maintain more than the 11 aircraft carriers the United States Navy now
operates, but would also need to keep pace with the carriers in service
with the Royal Navy, France and Australia. As long as NATO exists it
isn’t just the 11 U.S. carriers and potentially nine LHAs in the U.S.
fleet, but all of those other carriers.
Fanell noted that an
alliance with other partners is the United States’ best course of
action. He wrote, “The best option to avert future conflict is for the
U.S. and India to adopt a combined effort to significantly enhance our
whole of government approach to strengthen and integrate our military
capabilities to confront the PRC’s bad behavior, especially at sea.”
Perhaps,
first letting China spend wildly on developing a navy should also be an
option as well. Maintaining it—dealing with the corruption—and trying
to create its own “multi-power standard” might just be more than Beijing
bargained for.
Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has
contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites.
He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.
Image: Reuters
Click here to read the full article.
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U.S.
U.S. to sidestep arms pact to sell armed drones
The Trump administration will re-interpret a
Cold War-era arms-control agreement in order to help American defense
contractors sell military drones to more nations.
Three defense
industry executives and a U.S. official told Reuters about the policy
change, which has not previously been reported.
The change
concerns the 33-year-old Missile Technology Control Regime - or MTCR - a
pact created to curb arms proliferation, which counts 34 member
nations.
Washington has long seen the MTCR's restrictions on cruise missile sales as applicable to large, weaponized drones.
And
until now, only England, France and Australia have been allowed to buy
armed drones from U.S. manufacturers, according to data collected by The
Center for the Study of the Drone at Bard College in New York state.
But
an arms industry executive told Reuters that Jordan, Romania, Saudi
Arabia and UAE have shown interest in purchasing U.S. systems and will
be among the first customers in line when the U.S. policy changes.
Reinterpreting the MTCR is part of a broader Trump administration effort to sell more weapons overseas.
A
U.S. official and industry executives told Reuters the State Department
is expected to approve the first drone sales under the new
interpretation as soon as this summer,
The U.S. National Security
Council is expected to support the policy change at a meeting next week
and discuss a possible White House announcement.
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World
U.S.'s Pompeo to meet China's top diplomat in Hawaii seeking to ease tensions: media
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World
China Finishes Its Second Large Amphibious Assault Ship
Click here to read the full original article.
The Chinese Navy
has now launched a second large amphibious assault ship engineered to
carry weapons, helicopters, troops and landing craft into war, a move which further changes international power dynamics by strengthening China’s ability to launch expeditionary maritime attacks.
The
ship is described at the second Type 075 Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD),
somewhat analogous to the U.S. WASP-class. This Chinese amphibious
assault ship reportedly displaces as much as 30,000 tons and is able to
carry as many as 28 helicopters, a report from Naval News states.
The report adds that the new People’s Liberation Army Navy LHD is
likely powered by a diesel engine with 9,000kW, four Close In Weapons
Systems and HQ-10 surface-to-air missiles. The new ship’s “aim is likely
to increase the “vertical” amphibious assault capability with the very
mountainous East Coast of Taiwan in mind,” the Naval News report
writes.
The addition of more LHDs certainly increases China’s
maritime attack power, making it a formidable threat along the Taiwanese
coastline. Photos of the ship show well-deck in back, capable of
launching ship-to-shore transport craft similar to the U.S. Navy Landing
Craft Air Cushion or newer Ship-to-Shore Connector. Such a
configuration makes it appear somewhat similar to U.S. Navy WASP-class
which, unlike the first two ships of the America-class, also operates
with a well-deck from which to launch large-scale amphibious assaults.
The
Chinese LHD operates with a displacement of roughly 10,000-tons less
than its U.S. counterpart. However, despite an apparently smaller size,
it may operate with as many or more helicopters; if reports that the
Chinese LHD can operate 28 helicopters are true, that would appear to be
a larger number than the roughly 22 operated by U.S. LHDs. Regardless,
it does not appear as though the Type 075s operate anything like the
Short-Take-off-and-Landing F-35B stealth fighter which launches from
U.S. LHDs. F-35Bs,
combined with Harrier Jets and Ospreys are likely to push the number of
aircraft operated by U.S. LHDs somewhat higher than that Type 075. The
aviation centric first two America-class ships and the legacy WASP boats
both now operate with F-35s. Having
the F-35 is likely to give U.S. LHDs a decided advantage over these
emerging Chinese counterparts; not only does it bring the prospect of
stealth and air support, but also brings new dimensions of ISR to
maritime warfare. The possibility of establishing air supremacy during
an amphibious assault with an F-35 or even merely fortifying an advance
with 5th-generation air power, is reshaping amphibious attack strategy with unforeseen advantages.
While
threats to Taiwan may jump out as the first and most apparent area
threatened by expanding Chinese amphibious forces, the South China Sea
will also be increasingly vulnerable. In particular, when it comes to
ship-to-shore transports, a Type 075 could dispatch groups of troops,
weapons and even armored vehicles for attack, as well as large numbers
of amphibious assault vehicles. Several of these ships operating in
tandem would easily enable a Chinese amphibious assault to annex or
overwhelm large areas of the disputed island areas. Also not likely to
be lost on U.S. observers is that two capable LHDs of this kind
massively increase China’s expeditionary capability, introducing new
dimensions to the prospect of large-scale amphibious attacks against major-power target areas around the globe.
Kris
Osborn is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn
previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the
Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics
& Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air
military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest
military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The
History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature
from Columbia University.
Image: Reuters
Click here to read the full original article.
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Reuters
U.S. Senate panel authorizes $9.1 billion for 95 F-35 jets made by Lockheed
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate Armed
Services Committee said on Thursday it had authorized $9.1 billion to
procure 95 F-35 aircraft in its version of the 2021 National Defense
Authorization Act, or NDAA, an annual bill setting policy for the
Department of Defense.
The F-35 jet is made by Lockheed Martin Corp <LMT.N>.
The 95 F-35s authorized in the bill are 14 more than requested by President Donald Trump's administration.
The Senate committee also authorized the U.S. Air Force to keep six F-35s originally sold to Turkey.
The
jets were never delivered to Turkish soil because of a disagreement
over Ankara's purchase of the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system,
which the Pentagon said was "incompatible" with the stealthy F-35 jets.
The United States kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program after its S-400 purchase.
(Reporting by Patricia Zengerle and Mike Stone; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Peter Cooney)
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World
Senate panel OKs $6 billion military fund to confront China
WASHINGTON ― Plans for a Senate-crafted version of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, a new military fund to boost deterrence against China in the Pacific, is one step closer to becoming law.
The
Senate Armed Services Committee has approved nearly $6 billion for the
fund in its version of the annual defense policy bill, the panel
announced Thursday. It authorizes $1.4 billion in fiscal 2021, which
would be $188.6 million above the administration’s budget request, and
$5.5 billion for fiscal 2022. The bill also directs the defense
secretary to create a spending plan for all of the funds.
“The
best way to protect U.S. security and prosperity in Asia is to maintain a
credible balance of military power, but, after years of underfunding,
America’s ability to do so is at risk,” the committee’s summary stated.
“The FY21 [National Defense Authorization Act] establishes the Pacific
Deterrence Initiative (PDI) to send a strong signal to the Chinese
Communist Party that America is deeply committed to defending our
interests in the Indo-Pacific.
“PDI will enhance budgetary
transparency and oversight, focus resources on key military capability
gaps, reassure U.S. allies and partners, and bolster the credibility of
American deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.”
Though not all details
of the fund were immediately made public, SASC Chairman Jim Inhofe,
R-Okla., and ranking member Jack Reed, D-R.I., previously said they would sponsor a measure to enable U.S. military operations in the region, beyond supporting new weapons platforms.
Defense
Secretary Mark Esper has said China is his department’s top adversary,
but said Congress has worked to sharpen the Pentagon’s spending and
focus in the region. The PDI would follow the form of the multiyear European Deterrence Initiative, which has consumed $22 billion since its inception after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Congress
will have to internally negotiate the final dollar amount for PDI and
what those funds would buy, but House Armed Services Committee Chairman
Adam Smith, D-Wash., and ranking member Mac Thornberry, R-Texas, have
expressed support for the idea. Though the Senate’s approach differs,
Thornberry has also proposed spending $6 billion―all
in FY21―on priorities that include air and missile defense systems as
well as new military construction in partner countries; Smith hasn’t
released his own plan.
Once approved by the full Senate, its
version of the NDAA would be reconciled with the House’s version, which
the HASC is expected to make public late this month before it goes
through markup July 1 and advances to the House floor.
With an eye
on China beyond the PDI, the SASC bill also encourages the Air Force to
establish an operating location in the Indo-Pacific region for F-35A
fighter jets and to allocate “sufficient resources and prioritize the
protection of air bases that might be under attack from current or
emerging cruise missiles and advanced hypersonic missiles, specifically
from China."
There are also a number of provisions aimed at
safeguarding America’s technology and industrial base from Chinese
intellectual property theft and “economic aggression,” according to the
summary. The bill would also require reports from the Pentagon on how to
mitigate the risks from vendors like Chinese telecom firms Huawei and
ZTE when basing U.S. troops overseas.
The SASC summary said its proposed PDI would:
Increase
lethality of the joint force in the Pacific, including by improving
active and passive defense against theater cruise, ballistic and
hypersonic missiles for bases, operating locations and other critical
infrastructure.
Enhance the design and posture of the
joint force in the Indo-Pacific region by transitioning from large,
centralized and unhardened infrastructure to smaller, dispersed,
resilient and adaptive basing; increasing the number of capabilities of
expeditionary airfields and ports; enhancing pre-positioning of forward
stocks of fuel, munitions, equipment and materiel; and improving
distributed logistics and maintenance capabilities in the region to
ensure the sustainment of logistics under persistent multidomain attack.
Strengthen
alliances and partnerships to increase capabilities, improve
interoperability and information sharing, and support information
operations capabilities with a focus on countering malign influence.
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Business
Two of America's Most Powerful Aircraft Carriers Have Just Joined Forces
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World
China Just Added Two New Nuclear Missile Submarines to Its Fleet
The Chinese have just added two new nuclear-armed ballistic missile
submarines to their Navy, bringing the total number of so-called SSBNs
in the force up to six. While the U.S. operates twice as many, the
growing number of Chinese nuclear-deterrence submarines massively expands the ability of Beijing to hold the continental U.S. at substantial risk.
Nuclear-armed submarines are
intended to ensure a second-strike catastrophic response in the event
of a nuclear attack, essentially ensuring complete destruction of the
attacking country. They quietly and secretly patrol at great depths in
undisclosed locations to function as a large deterrent force against a
first-strike nuclear attack.
As recently as May of 2020, two
additional “Type 094 SSBNs, had entered service,” according to a
Congressional Research Service Report called “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities.” The
newest type of SSBN, according to the Navy report, is armed with 12
JL-2 nuclear-armed, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, the CRS
report explains. They are also armed with Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles,
wire-guided and wake-homing torpedoes and mines. Perhaps of greater
concern, the Chinese have already test-fired an emerging JL-3 nuclear
armed intercontinental ballistic missile with a reported range of more
that 5,600 miles, according to a 2018 CSIS report. The missile is solid fueled.
China
clearly appears to be expanding its nuclear-armed submarine reach on a
global scale, as there have been several news reports of Chinese SSBNs
seen in various hot-spots around the globe.
The CRS report
estimates that, by this year, the Chinese are operating 55
diesel-electric submarines and seven nuclear-powered submarines.
Overall,
the Defense Intelligence Agency estimates that China may operate as
many as 70 submarines, according to the CRS assessment; in addition, the
CRS report estimates that China will have as many as 8 SSBNs and 76
submarines overall by 2030. Most of China’s submarines are non-nuclear,
and according to the CRS’ reference to the Office of Naval Intelligence,
“China’s submarine force continues to grow at a low rate, though with
substantially more-capable submarines replacing older units. Current
expansion at submarine production yards could allow higher future
production numbers.”
While there is likely little known about the
exact technological make-up of the emerging Chinese Jin-class SSBN, it
may not rival the emerging U.S. Columbia-class submarines. The new,
now-in-development Columbia class may be the quietest undersea boat ever
to exist. It uses a quiet, efficient electric-drive and a differently
configured X-shaped stern.
What is known about the Chinese
Jin-class is that it will be armed with an extremely lethal, 5,600 mile
range nuclear armed ballistic missile, the JL-3. For instance, a 2018 CSIS report
says the Chinese have already test fired the weapon which, by any
estimation, could easily hold the continental U.S. at great risk.
Kris
Osborn is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn
previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the
Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics
& Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air
military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest
military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The
History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature
from Columbia University.
Image: Reuters
Click here to read the full original article.
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Business
A U.S.-China Cold War Could Be Good for Investors, After All
